The March quarter ABS Construction Done Survey (8755) is out:
MARCH KEY POINTS
VALUE OF WORK DONE, CHAIN VOLUME MEASURESTOTAL CONSTRUCTION
- The trend estimate for total construction work done rose 0.3% in the March quarter 2011.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for total construction work done rose 0.7%, to $42,326.6m, in the March quarter.
BUILDING WORK DONE
- The trend estimate for total building work done fell 3.9% in the March quarter 2011.
- The trend estimate for non-residential building work done fell 7.9% in the March quarter.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate of total building work done fell 3.4%, to $20,023.9m, in the March quarter
ENGINEERING WORK DONE
- The trend estimate for engineering work done rose 3.9% in the March quarter 2011.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for engineering work done rose 4.6%, to $22,302.7m, in the March quarter
All fine, if not a little boring. Oddly enough, the best part of this survey is actually the work not yet done component. That is, the value of the pipeline of work ahead. Here are major states graphed for residential construction:
Looking rather sick in WA and QLD, whilst the downturn in approvals is yet to flow through to building in VIC and NSW is OK.
Meanwhile, non-residential speaks volumes:
Roughly speaking it goes this way: GFC, stimulus, then slump. Remember this is factories, shops, buildings, industrial complexes etc.
There’s not a lot of pressure in this survey for an imminent rate rise. But take note. The downturn in building activity will please the hell out of the RBA because of the following graph:
This is the pipeline by value of engineering work in the December 2010 quarter from the ABS 8762 Survey published in April. This is mines, gas plants, oil rigs – boom stuff – which is not captured in the building survey. We may not face a June rate rise but the RBA sure isn’t going to relax.
