Nothing is ever easy. On Monday I posted about AFG’s latest data that suggested we are about to see a new boom in mortgage issuance. Although the figures did look impressive I also noted:
.. that there does not appear to be anything in any other leading indicator to suggest that AFG figures are flowing through to better market results. The auction clearance rates still appear to be subdued:
And reports from “Super Saturday” in Melbourne and Sydney certainly don’t appear to show that the market is “running hot”. Though results were up a couple of percentage points in both major capitals in the weekend just past. This suggests that at least some of the action may be in new homes and that the increase in sales reported for October has continued into November, again it is too early to tell.
Today I noticed that SQM Research have updated their stock on market stats for November and, although it is easy to identify the August surge in the data, the same cannot be said for November. Stock on market continues to follow the trends that I mentioned back in October and this, together with the flat-to-falling auction rates across the country, puts a bit of a question mark over AFG’s latest data.
As I said above, nothing is ever easy. The charts are below, as always, blue is houses and purple is units.
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Nationally the rise continues
The same for Sydney:
Melbourne continues its moon shot:
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Brisbane continues to stabilise:
Same for Perth:
Adelaide looks to be following Melbourne:
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Looks like we will have to wait for a bit more data to get the whole picture.
