The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released dwelling approvals data for the month of December and while it’s a laclustre result overall, there are significant variations across states. The number of dwellings approved fell -1.0% in December 2011, in seasonally adjusted terms, following a rise of 10.1% in November. The number of approvals are also down 24.5% year-on-year.
The state-by-state breakdown is as follows:
- Victoria: down 16.7%;
- South Australia: down 9.1%;
- New South Wales: down 5.0%
- Queensland: up 24.6%
- Tasmania: up 15.6%; and
- Western Australia: up 6.0%.
Looking at private sector houses only, which rose by 0.2% in December, the breakdown is as follows:
- Western Australia: up 6.3%;
- Queensland: up 4.0%;
- South Australia: down 8.3%;
- New South Wales: down 3.7%; and
- Victoria: down 3.4%.
Digging deeper into the numbers, the value of total building approved increased 1.9% in December in seasonally adjusted terms, following a decrease of -0.5% in November. The value of residential building increased 1.0% while non-residential building rose 3.3%.
Turning to the key chart, which shows dwelling approvals on a 3-month moving average basis, Victoria’s dwelling approvals, while still elevated, are well below their peak level reached in mid-2010. On the other hand, Queensland’s, New South Wales’, and Western Australia’s dwelling approvals remain at relatively sluggish levels despite the latest rises in Queensland and Western Australia:
For a holistic view, the below chart shows the number of dwelling approvals nationally broken down into houses and units & apartments. As you can see, approvals for both components are in a slump:
With new homes sales also in a slump, expect calls for further rate cuts, boosts to building grants and other stimulatory measures to hasten from within the building and finance industry.
Going forward, it will also be interesting to see whether the New South Wales changes to first home buyer stamp duty concessions – which will apply to new builds only after 30 December 2011 – will lead to a corresponding increase in dwelling construction in that state.
For now, however, we can say that the obvious lack of enthusiasm for credit that has seen off two rate cuts in aggregate credit data is at work in building approvals as well.
