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By Leith van Onselen

What’s wrong with the below story?

1. Melbourne home sales have tanked, tracking -42% below the five-year average and -36% lower than last year’s sales activity:

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2. Mortgage demand in Victoria has collapsed, with the number of mortgage discharges (mortgages repaid in-full) actually exceeding the number of mortgage lodgements (new mortgages) in the year to June 2012:

3. The number of homes for sale in Melbourne is at record highs, tracking around double 2008 levels:

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4. New house sales in Victoria are anemic and expected to decline further now that the $13,000 First Home Bonus (which was available to newly constructed homes) has expired:

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5. And yet new home construction continues in ernest, with Victoria completing nearly 40% of the nation’s new dwellings in the March quarter of 2012 – a record share – and more construction in the pipeline:

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Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.