![ScreenHunter_01 Jul. 19 09.10](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ScreenHunter_01-Jul.-19-09.10.gif)
What’s wrong with the below story?
1. Melbourne home sales have tanked, tracking -42% below the five-year average and -36% lower than last year’s sales activity:
![ScreenHunter_02 Jul. 19 09.15](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ScreenHunter_02-Jul.-19-09.15.gif)
2. Mortgage demand in Victoria has collapsed, with the number of mortgage discharges (mortgages repaid in-full) actually exceeding the number of mortgage lodgements (new mortgages) in the year to June 2012:
![ScreenHunter_03 Jul. 19 09.22](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ScreenHunter_03-Jul.-19-09.22.gif)
3. The number of homes for sale in Melbourne is at record highs, tracking around double 2008 levels:
![ScreenHunter_04 Jul. 19 09.25](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ScreenHunter_04-Jul.-19-09.25.gif)
4. New house sales in Victoria are anemic and expected to decline further now that the $13,000 First Home Bonus (which was available to newly constructed homes) has expired:
![ScreenHunter_10 Jul. 18 16.44](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ScreenHunter_10-Jul.-18-16.44.gif)
5. And yet new home construction continues in ernest, with Victoria completing nearly 40% of the nation’s new dwellings in the March quarter of 2012 – a record share – and more construction in the pipeline:
![ScreenHunter_05 Jul. 19 09.33](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ScreenHunter_05-Jul.-19-09.33.gif)
![ScreenHunter_06 Jul. 19 09.35](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ScreenHunter_06-Jul.-19-09.35.gif)
Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.