Weekly RP Data house price update

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ScreenHunter_07 Mar. 20 20.55

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 25 July 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a 0.36% increase. It was the seventh consecutive weekly rise in values (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_20 Jul. 25 17.30

Gains were recorded in all major capitals, except Adelaide and Brisbane (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_21 Jul. 25 17.31

Values are up 1.30% so far in July, with all major capitals, except Adelaide, recording rises (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_22 Jul. 25 17.32
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Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 4.32% at the 5-city level, with all markets except Adelaide experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_23 Jul. 25 17.33

Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 4.51% at the 5-city level, with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_24 Jul. 25 17.35

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Perth and Sydney (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_25 Jul. 25 17.36
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Values are down 1.6% since peak at the 5-city level, with all major capitals except Sydney in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_26 Jul. 25 17.37

However, major capital home values have now gained 6.3% since bottoming in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_27 Jul. 25 17.38

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is incredibly volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a shorter-term timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.