Weekly RP Data house price update

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ScreenHunter_03 Apr. 02 11.00

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 8 August 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a 0.35% increase. It was the ninth consecutive weekly rise in values (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_52 Aug. 08 20.56

Gains were recorded in all major capitals, except Adelaide (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_53 Aug. 08 20.57

Values are up 0.42% so far in July, with all major capitals, except Adelaide, recording rises (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_54 Aug. 08 20.59
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Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 4.98% at the 5-city level, with all markets except Adelaide experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_55 Aug. 08 21.00

Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 5.18% at the 5-city level, with all major markets except Adelaide experiencing increases (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_56 Aug. 08 21.02

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Perth and Sydney (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_57 Aug. 08 21.03
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Values are down 1.0% since peak at the 5-city level, with all major capitals except Sydney and Perth in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_58 Aug. 08 21.04

However, major capital home values have now gained 6.9% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_59 Aug. 08 21.05

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is incredibly volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a shorter-term timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.