Australian retail sales fizzle in March

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ScreenHunter_02 May. 25 22.30

By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released retail sales figures for the month of March, which registered a 0.1% seasonally-adjusted increase in sales over the month, which missed economist’s expectations of a 0.4% rise. Annual sales growth clocked in at a solid 5.7%:

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The below chart maps out sales growth by state on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis:

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As you can see, monthly sales growth was positive in four states and territories and negative in four. New South Wales has also driven growth over the past year – presumably driven by its nation-leading house price boom – whereas sales in the ACT are firmly in the red as Budget cuts bite.

Looking at the major categories, you can see that sales growth was positive during March in food retailing and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food, but negative in all other major categories. Australia’s famed cafe culture has also come alight over the past year, with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food recording strong 11.9% annual growth, whereas department store sales have continued their structural decline:

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You can see from the next chart that the pick-up in recent sales activity has been driven mostly by discretionary retail, where growth has picked-up from depressed levels; albeit with department stores once again languishing:

ScreenHunter_2304 May. 07 11.50
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I’ll be back later with analysis of quarterly retail sales volumes, which will feed into Australia’s upcoming March quarter GDP release.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.