Hong Kong housing bubble threatens to bust

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From the SCMP (chart from ZH):

20151203_HKHOMES1_0Hong Kong home sales sank last month to a record low as an imminent interest rate in the US this month scared away prospective buyers.

According to Land Registry data, November saw 2,826 registered residential transactions, down 14.4 per cent from October and 41.7 per cent less than in November last year. In terms of value, residential transactions dropped 7.7 per cent month on month to HK$20.8 billion.
“Total home sales including those in primary and the secondary market dropped to the lowest level since we have started to gauge property transactions in 1996,” said Wong Leung-sing, an associate director of research at Centaline Property Agency.

He said prospective buyers in general held back their purchases in view of softening home prices and a potential rate hike also dented interest. Given the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, any increase in interest rates in Washington would impact the home market here.

“Sales volume in the secondary market fell for the fourth straight month to a 20-year low,” Wong said.

Hong Kong home prices fell 4.5 per cent after peaking in September, according to the Centa-City Leading Index, but was still up 6 per cent from the beginning of the year. Last week, 20 out of 50 housing estates monitored by Ricacorp Properties recorded zero transactions.

I wonder how much this is also the mainland Chinese capital controls which have hit Australia, UK, NZ and US property. With a falling yuan and US rate hikes (in some measure) next year this will not improve.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.