US industry groups desperately try to rescue the TPP

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By Leith van Onselen

With the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal seemingly hanging by a thread in the US, six pro-trade American industry groups have reportedly requested that member countries, like Australia, offer additional concessions to the US in a bid to ensure the pact passes Congress – a request that has been firmly rebuked by Australia’s ambassador, Joe Hockey. From Adam Creighton:

“Renegotiation of the agreement in any form … is not an ­option and would jeopardise ­approval … by the other TPP countries,” he wrote in a letter copied to President Barack Obama’s top trade negotiator, Michael Froman. Mr Hockey added that he hoped the US would “not seek to renege on the commitments it made when the TPP deal was struck”.

Six pro-trade US industry groups, including the US ­Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers, had encouraged representatives of participating countries, including Australia, to consider making further concessions to the US, amid growing concern congress will torpedo a deal meant to be one of Mr Obama’s chief policy legacies.

Opposition to the TPP has been building on both sides.

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During the Presidential primaries, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders united much of the right and left against the TPP. Democratic Presidential nominee, Hilary Clinton, also voiced her opposition to the TPP, flagging that if she is elected president in November she would oppose a vote to ratify the TPP during a lame-duck session of Congress.

Yesterday, Republican nominee, Donald Trump escalated the rhetoric, proclaiming the TPP is a “rape of our country” and challenging Hillary Clinton to void the agreement in its entirety.

It is believed that the best (perhaps only) chance of passing the TPP now rests with the Obama Administration waiting until the lame duck session after November’s Presidential Election before giving Congress the chance to vote on the deal. However, Hilary Clinton’s opposition and influence could stop the vote from occurring.

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Given the dubious provisions surrounding intellectual property and investor-state dispute settlement, it appears that political opposition in the US remains the best chance of the TPP being scuttled, which would be the best outcome for Australians.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.