China inflation signals stimulus peak

Monday 11 July 2016

China released its June inflation numbers over the weekend and what was a firming pulse is slowing fast. CPI growth has now fallen for four straight months to 1.9% year on year. PPI falls have slowed dramatically for five months but in June it fell -0.2% and -2.6% year on year:

The PPI especially is a good leading indicator on relative strength of Chinese stimulus pulses in the its investment complex. This one has run out steam. H2 slowing imminent.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.