Luxury New York property hits Chinese brick wall

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Hello Sydney? From the New York Times:

New York City’s ultraluxury real estate frenzy — with its sky-piercing condominium towers and $100 million price tags — has finally come to an end.

Even with every conceivable amenity, the eight- and nine-digit prices attached to trophy homes with helicopter views and high-end finishes never bore much relation to actual value. Rather, a class of superrich investors primarily drove the market, choosing high-priced real estate as their asset of choice, because it was less volatile than other investments and they could use shell companies to hide their identities.

But today a four-year construction boom aimed at buyers willing to spend $10 million or more has flooded the top of the market just as global market turmoil has caused wealthy investors to pull back and the federal government has moved to scrutinize some all-cash transactions.

It’s not just the volatility of financial markets that has big spenders sitting on their wallets. Other global trends that have put the lid on high-end spending include China’s tightened restrictions on capital outflows, uncertainty surrounding Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, lower oil prices curbing wealth in the Middle East, and tax increases and other measures that have driven up property transaction costs in some countries.

As the volume of sales at the uppermost level has dwindled, some sellers have made drastic price cuts and some projects have been delayed.

…In and around West 57th Street, known as Billionaires’ Row, “it’s not just slow — it’s come to a complete halt,” said Dolly Lenz, a broker to the superrich. She attributed the lack of activity along the Midtown corridor to oversupply, little differentiation among glassy ultraluxury units and peak pricing. “That’s a death knell,” she said.

New York is not alone. After the global financial crisis hit in 2008, investors turned to high-end real estate around the world as a safe place to park their millions. But since the middle of 2014, prime property values have dropped in Paris, Singapore, London, Moscow and Dubai, said Yolande Barnes, director of world research at Savills, a global real estate firm. “These cities have acted as a store of wealth,” said Ms. Barnes, who sees the current decline in values as “an inevitable setback that you get after a long bull run.”

Though the market still has a long way to go before fire-sale pricing sets in, the declines may indicate that a ceiling has been reached. And even as sales over $10 million drop off in Manhattan, the bulk of the market remains robust, with competition particularly heated for homes priced for less than $3 million.

Just askin’!

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.