The employment picture

So, the employment market has turned. Kudos to the rather volatile but this time correct Roy Morgan measure.

As you can see from the above seasonally adjusted chart, the unemployment rate rose in all states except WA (down .2%). The big jumps were in VIC (up .5%), SA (up .4%) and QLD (up .2%). NSW was flat.

All states except QLD also recorded a loss of full time positions. NSW lost 4,800 jobs, VIC lost 28,000 jobs, SA lost 7,300 jobs and WA lost 2,000. QLD added 6,600 jobs. Presumably its participation rate rose faster still.

I know, I know, there are sampling errors, but those are the figures and the flat trend is, to my mind, set to turn. Take a look:

Here too is the unemployment rate graphed against house prices and retail sales. Looks like the more job losses ahead to me:

And finally, to complete the picture, unemployment graphed against the Employment Index from the NAB Business Survey for July, which showed business employment intentions collapsing:

Do you think they feel better this month? More jobs losses ahead. Rate hikes off. Bullhawks finished.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.