Credit growth little changed

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RBA credit aggregates for September are out and show an ongoing flat trend of low credit growth in housing, personal and business credit:

Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries rose by 0.5 per cent over September 2011, after rising by 0.2 per cent over August. Over the year to September, total credit rose by 3.4 per cent.

Housing credit increased by 0.5 per cent over September, following an increase of 0.4 per cent over August. Over the year to September, housing credit rose by 5.8 per cent.

Other personal credit rose by 0.4 per cent over September, after decreasing by 1.1 per cent over August. Over the year to September, other personal credit decreased by 0.9 per cent.

Business credit rose by 0.4 per cent over September, after rising by 0.1 per cent over August. Over the year to September, business credit increased by 0.2 per cent.

Over the month of September, M3 grew by 0.8 per cent and broad money grew by 0.9 per cent. Over the year to September, broad money grew by 8.3 per cent.

Here’s the chart of monthly growth rates since 2007:

Business credit has managed to crawl out of negative territory but seems to be forming a sideways trend somewhere around zero. Owner occupier and investor mortgage debt is also stuck where it’s been all year at around .5% per month. Personal credit is going nowhere either.

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Here are the aggregates:

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.