The signs are everywhere that employment has slowed but, as we know, the ABS figures continue to paint unemployment in a sideways pattern. Today there is yet more evidence that that will not last. From DEEWR Job Vacany Report for October:
The Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) declined by 1.9%1 in October 2011, the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Over the year, the IVI has fallen by 6.3%, and is now 42.3% below the March 2008 peak. The IVI increased in the Northern Territory (10.5%), Western Australia (9.6%) and Queensland (6.6%) over the year to October 2011, but decreased in the other States and the ACT.
The DEEWR report is more grnaual than the comparable ANZ job series and shows pretty cleary where labour market weakness is concentrated:
Yes, it’s a white collar caning. Certainly not unexpected in a predominantly services driven economy. The carnage is sales forces is particularly pointed, looks like a readjustment to unexpectedly low demand. The state by state split shows very clearly the adjustment to mining led growth. We no doubt have our double adjustment – both credit weakness and Dutch disease – at work in these figures.
We certainly aren’t seeing a GFC like drop in employment but the slow grind lower looks entrenched and rising unemployment is only a matter of time.
The whole report is worth a read.
