The RBA has just released its private sector credit aggregates for November:
Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries rose by 0.3 per cent over November 2011, after rising by 0.2 per cent over October. Over the year to November, total credit rose by 3.5 per cent.
Housing credit rose by 0.5 per cent over November, following an increase of 0.4 per cent over October. Over the year to November, housing credit rose by 5.7 per cent.
Other personal credit rose by 0.1 per cent over November, after decreasing by 0.2 per cent over October. Over the year to November, other personal credit decreased by 1.1 per cent.
Business credit has been unchanged since the end of September. Over the year to November, business credit increased by 0.9 per cent.
Here are the charts. First up, housing credit growth (0.5% mom; 1.5% qoq; 5.7% yoy) remains at all time (34-year) lows in nominal terms on an annual basis:
However, growth has improved slightly over the most recent quarter – i.e. 1.5% in the November quarter versus 1.0% in the August quarter – suggesting improved momentum.
Broken down by component, owner-occupied housing credit (0.5% mom; 1.5% qoq; 6.0% yoy) has risen at a slightly faster rate than investor housing credit (0.4% mom; 1.4% qoq; 5.0% yoy):
Turning to the other components, other personal credit growth (0.1% mom; 0.3% qoq; -1.1% yoy) has moved into positive territory after a period of deleveraging:
However, business credit growth (0.0% mom; 0.9% qoq; 0.9% yoy) was flat for the second consecutive month:
Overall, credit growth remains stable at quite weak levels and there is nothing to suggest that households have altered their preference to save rather than borrow (spend). This suggests a continuation of the ‘slow melt’ of housing values that has prevailed over the past year.
