Yesterday, the ABS released the Australian Demographic Statistics for the March quarter of 2012.
According to the ABS, Australia’s population grew by 1.5% in the year to March 2012, which was the highest annual recorded rate of growth since December 2009, and above the 30-year average of 1.3%.
The growth in the number of persons in the year to March 2012 was 331,300, which was 83,600 above the 30-year average:
As shown above, Australia’s population growth continues to be driven by net overseas migration (NOM) – i.e. those residing in Australia for 12 months or more.
While NOM declined significantly – from a peak of 315,700 in calendar year 2008 to 197,200 in the year to March 2012 – it remains well above the average level of 123,400.
Moreover, the proportion of population growth derived from NOM – 60% in the year to March 2012 – remains well above the 30-year average of 47%:
Separate data compiled by the ABS, which measures permanent arrivals/departures into Australia only, suggests that nearly two-thirds of NOM is temporary.
As shown in the next chart, the number of net permanent arrivals into Australia was 71,300 in the 12 months to July 2012, which is tracking just above the 30-year average of 66,400.
While natural increase – the difference between births and deaths – is not the key driver of Australia’s population growth, it too is running at levels well above the 30-year average. However, it has begun to trend downwards, falling from a peak of 155,100 in the 12 months to September 2010 to 145,100 in the 12 months to March 2012, caused by both a decline in the number of births as well as an increase in deaths (see below chart).
More recently, Australia’s population growth rate has been driven by migration into Australia’s key resources state – Western Australia – where population grew at a rate (3.1%) that was more than double the national average (1.5%) in the 12 months to March 2012:
In number terms, however, population growth in the 12 months to March 2012 was highest in Victoria (82,500), followed by Queensland (76,400), New South Wales (73,500), and Western Australia (73,300):
Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.
