The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released housing finance data for the month of August, which registered a seasonally-adjusted 1.8% increase in the number of owner-occupied finance commitments over the month. July’s results were also revised up by 0.5%:
Arguably, the most important figure in the release is the number of owner-occupied housing finance commitments excluding refinancings, which registered a seasonally-adjusted 2.6% increase over the month, but remains some -8% below the five-year moving average level. July’s result was also revised up by 0.9%.
The number of owner-occupied housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in August were also 6% higher than the same time last year.
With the revisions to the prior month’s data, housing finance now appears to be in an uptrend, with the series having risen for six consecutive months.
Unfortunately, the ABS only provides the value of investor finance commitments. These were down by -1% in August, which follows July’s -2% fall:
Overall, it’s a solid result that contradicts the RBA’s credit aggregates figures, which registered the slowest quarterly and annual housing credit growth in the series’ history. This suggests that pre-existing home buyers are likely paying-off their mortgages quicker, which is offsetting some of the new mortgages being written.
There was also a ~5% pick-up in commitments (excluding refinancings) from New South Wales and Queensland, which might have been affected from a pull-forward of demand from first-time buyers rushing to beat the October expiry of the first home buyer’s grant on pre-existing dwellings.
Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.
