Daily iron ore price update (breakout!)

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Find below the iron ore price table for January 31, 2013:

And the chart:

So, once again defying the doomsayers, 12 month swaps for the miracle commodity have broken out to a new high for the move and put a rocket under spot.

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More support was found in rebar futures (though no move in spot), which poured it on across the curve and are making a mockery of my base case that China will weaken again into the second half (which is to be expected, reflexivity and all that):

Let’s revisit the seasonality issue around Chinese New Year. Here’s a seasonal chart from Bloomie:

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As you can see from the small sample we have, Chinese New Year dips tend to arrive in mid-February regardless of a date that jumps around between the last week and January and mid-February for the actual event so its too early to call it off.

But there’s no doubt that right now there’s life in these markets.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.