The Australian Government released its February budget statement late Friday and the result shows a widening in the deficit miss from the MYEFO surplus forecast:
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The underlying cash balance for the 2012-13 financial year to 28 February 2013 was a deficit of $23,646 million compared to the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) profiling Year to Date (YTD) of the underlying cash balance deficit of $17,933 million.The fiscal balance for the 2012-13 financial year to 28 February 2013 was a deficit of $15,666 million, compared to the MYEFO YTD profile of the fiscal balance of a deficit of $8,784 million.
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The difference of $5,713 million primarily relates to lower taxes received and higher personal benefit payments, partially offset by lower payments for goods and services
AGGREGATES ACTUAL
2012-2013
February
$mACTUAL
2012-2013
YTD February
$mMYEFO
Profile
2012-2013
YTD February
$mMYEFO
ESTIMATE*
2012-2013
FULL YEAR
$mRevenue 32,761 235,190 242,370 373,739 Expenses 29,238 249,782 250,504 375,049 Net operating balance 3,523 -14,593 -8,134 -1,310 Net capital investment 490 1,074 650 -2,517 Fiscal balance 3,033 -15,666 -8,784 1,207 Underlying Cash Receipts 30,050 220,427 227,030 363,931 Underlying Cash Payments 26,884 244,073 244,964 362,853 Underlying cash balance(a) 3,165 -23,646 -17,933 1,077 Headline cash balance 2,987 -25,354 -21,331 -7,325 Total assets 355,140 358,354 Total liabilities 609,223 503,659 Net worth(b) -254,083 -145,305 Net debt(c) 165,319 143,980 FISCAL OUTCOMES
Underlying Cash Balance
The underlying cash balance includes cash from operations and net cash provided by investing activities in non-financial assets but excludes the net cash earnings for the Future Fund1.
The underlying cash balance for the year to 28 February 2013 was a deficit of $23,646 million, this is $5,713 below the MYEFO profiling of the year to date balance, largely because of tax revenue collections.
Fiscal Balance
The fiscal balance for the year to 28 February 2013 was a deficit of $15,666 million. The MYEFO profile of the fiscal balance for 2012-13 YTD is a deficit of $8,784 million. The difference of $6,882 million relates to lower revenue of $7,181 million partially offset by lower expenses of $722 million.
In January, the fiscal balance miss was $4,898 million. As the Government says, care should be taken when making short run comparisons.
