China October import data showed a decent fall in iron ore. From Macquarie:
After September‟s surge in reported iron ore import volumes, October saw volumes pull back with imports falling to 67.8mt, down 12% MoM on a days adjusted basis. It is our view that some of October‟s import volume was reported in September as paperwork was pushed through ahead of the holiday and as such, it is more useful to look at the statistics on a moving average basis. We note also that in October 2012, iron ore import volumes contracted by 16% MoM, suggesting that China may be ramping up imports faster than a year ago. This is also apparent in the YoY comparison, with October volumes up 20% compared to the same month last year and 10% for the year to date.
There were no apparent supply issues in the month and given the ongoing price strength despite the material fall, Mac’s theory may be right. It’s either that or cartel power!
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
