The Department of Employment has today released its Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment, which registered a 0.11% fall in November – the second consecutive monthly drop following October’s 0.005% fall (see next chart).
The Indicator is supposed to anticipate movements in the growth cycle of employment via a composite index of four weighted series (ANZ Newspaper Job Advertisements, Dun and Bradstreet Employment Expectations, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index), which are statistically ascertained to lead employment growth over the last two decades.
According to the Department of Employment:
It is too early to tell whether employment will continue to grow more slowly than its downwardly revised long-term trend rate of 1.2 per cent per annum over coming months. The previous estimate of a fall in the Indicator in September has been revised to show a slight rise, while the previous estimated decline in June has been revised to show no change. Cyclical employment has now fallen for six consecutive months.
Don’t worry, I am confused as well.
