As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released labour force data for the month of April, which registered no change in the headline unemployment rate (still to 5.8%).
Total employment increased by a seasonally adjusted 14,200 to 11.573 million in April, compared to an upwardly revised 11.559 million in March. The gain in employment was driven entirely by full-time jobs, with part time employment remaining steady. However, aggregate monthly hours worked fell sharply by 39.9 million hours (-2.5%), taking some shine off the result even if it is likely Easter related.
Nevertheless, the result beat analyst’s expectations that unemployment would rise to a seasonally adjusted 5.9%, with only 8,800 jobs created.
The participation rate also fell marginally to 64.7%, based on unrounded estimates.
Following nearly a year of stagnation, total employment has built on the last two month’s gains, which is encouraging (see next chart).
However, while recent gains are encouraging, it’s too early to pop the champagne corks, with growth in full-time jobs still weak, albeit improving (0.2% YoY SA / 0.2% YoY Trend):
Employment growth is once again being driven by the mining states, with Queensland’s large LNG projects presumably playing a major role (see next chart).
And the Southern States continue to have the highest unemployment rates, surprisingly along with Queensland (see next chart).
The state seasonally-adjusted figures are notoriously volatile and subject to a big margin of error. As such, the below chart shows the ABS’ trend unemployment rates, which shows Western Australia with the lowest unemployment (but rising), Tasmania and South Australia with the highest, with Victorian and Queensland unemployment also elevated. By contrast, New South Wales is the only state where unemployment is both below the national average and trending lower. Note also that the national unemployment rate (5.9%) has improved marginally in trend terms:
A big negative from this release is that the aggregate number of hours worked slumped by 2.5% in April and was also down by 2.4% over the year:
The below chart, which tracks the changes in hours worked on a trend basis, shows a mixed bag across the states and a falling trend nationally (-0.2% YoY):
The employment-to-population ratio and the participation rate were mixed in April, with the former flat (at 61.0%) and the latter falling ever so slightly (to 64.7%) in seasonally-adjusted terms. However, both have recovered slightly in trend terms, which is positive (see next chart).
Finally, the below chart summarises the annual change in the key employment aggregates on a seasonally-adjusted basis:
Overall, this is a mixed employment report, with the third consecutive monthly increase in employment and the marginal improvement in trend unemployment tempered by falling aggregate hours worked.
Still, its a better result than most were expecting, with the labour market showing the markings of cyclical pick-up. The mining cliff awaits, however, which could spoil the party later in the year and into the next.
