I’ve discovered a new index. BDO runs a fast data retail index based on same store sales week to week. I can’t vouch for its veracity but it looks to have a decent correlation with official sales. Here it is:
You can see last year’s slump into the election and subsequent bounce on pent up demand and a definite slide since. There was also a solid slump around the unusually concentrated holidays of Easter this year and subsequent snap back. Finally, there’s a post-Budget swoon to the lowest sales in the two year history of the index (excluding the January holiday slump) that wasn’t there for the previous two years in May (yellow dot is total sales).
I don’t expect this kind of Budget damage to be lasting but I do expect lasting damage.
The full interactive is here.
