From Roy Morgan today:
If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily (56.5%, down 1%) cf. L-NP (43.5%, up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends – July 5/6 & 12/13, 2014.
This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,955 Australian electors aged 18+. Despite the L-NP gaining on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP improved to 38.5% (up 2% from the last released Morgan Poll a fortnight ago) whilst the L-NP primary vote is 34% (down 1%).
This week the L-NP gained stronger preference support from minor parties including the Palmer United Party (PUP) (7.5%, up 0.5% – the equal highest recorded) and Independents/ Others (8.5%, down 1%). Support for the Greens fell slightly to 11.5% (down 0.5%).
Support for the Palmer United Party is now highest in the two mining States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (13.5%) and Western Australia (13%). Support for PUP is significantly lower in New South Wales (5.5%), Victoria (5%), Tasmania (6%) and South Australia (5.5%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support remains strongest amongst women with the ALP 60.5% well ahead of the L-NP 39.5% on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men is closer with the ALP 52.5% just ahead of the L-NP on 47.5%.
Analysis by States
The ALP maintains a strong two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except Western Australia: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%. New South Wales: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Queensland: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, South Australia: ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5% and Tasmania: ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 90 this week (down 5.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 36.5% (down 3%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 46.5% (up 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.
And here’s my own chart of first term PM performances:
Still tracking the “witch” into the “ditch”, if you’ll pardon the expression.
