The 2015 black swan bell curve

Here it is from Society Generale:

For the visually impaired, that reads on the downside

1. Ukraine crisis spills over to broader disruption (5%)
2. Deflate-thy-neighbor, or systemic EM crisis (10%)
3. Lower-than-expected price multipliers (15%)
4. Sharp repricing of G4 term premiums (20%)
5. UK election leads to Brexit vote (25%), Brexit (10%)
6. China hard-landing (30%)

And the up:

1. Higher than expected price multipliers (15%)
2. Euro area fast track reform and growth friendly fiscal policies (10%)

Where’s the Grexit which should be as high as China? Or maybe that’s no longer a tail risk! On the upside, number 1 is a base case for me as the Fed delays.