I love me some charts – and the RBA has released its updated Chart Pack with the latest data.
I already used a few in this mornings post about the bind the RBA is in, so here’s some more to chew over:
Its a new normalcy as GDP growth around the world stabilises in the mid 2% level as China engineers a soft landing and the developed West flutter about. Growth in growth is over for now…
Put away your “out of control wage growth=lower interest rate” demons, because particularly in the private sector there ain’t none. While total hours worked is rising – because population is rising – average hours are flat as a tack. The broader unemployment figures are harder to digest due to the ABS own admission, they don’t know whats going on…
Compared to the rest of the world at circa 6%, Australia is only lagging Europe. However, since the German dominated ECB only care about German unemployment – also at 6%, its all good. Where is full employment these days? NAIRU at 5% apparently…
The construction boom that will save Straya! Record building approvals, mainly in apartments, and mainly in Sydney.
Luckily the response is reflexive, otherwise we’d have out of control price movements in Sydney and Melbourne where all the building is going on…nevermind. That Sydney chart is epic….
Also epic is the huge turn around in unemployment in Western Australia – shooting to new levels under Colin Barnett’s effortless stewardship.
As their growth goes into the toilet, alongside Queensland, with the only powerhouses being the bubble States of Victoria and NSW…
As their budgets blowout to new lows:
But no help in final demand as public construction falls to the wayside. How about some infrastructure spending?
Onto bigger pictures – look at this horrid chart of bulk commodity prices:
But that’s okay, because A. its “all about volume, man” and 2. the service led export boom will save us from the difference. I swear you hand in your ability to read a chart when they give you an economics degree…check out the vertical scale on the right side for services:
Lets finish in a flurry of finance:
Will lending rates go lower? Earnings on Australian stocks look like they will – this is a horror chart for future earnings:
At least the bond market is doing well, exploding in size as banks and governments borrow like crazy:
While corporates do sweet nothing about raising equity to expand or start new businesses – sans banks, there’s nothing going on in the primary market (apart from failed IPOS like Dick Smiths)
But let’s get down to the most important metric the RBA really cares about – the profitability of Megabank. Still in the obscene mid teens ROE:
While net interest margin flirts with the 2% level…
