While Australia’s trade minister, Steve Ciobo, continues to put on a brave face, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) appears to be hanging by a thread in the US.
Opposition to the TPP has long been building on both sides.
During the Presidential primaries, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders united much of the right and left against the TPP. Democratic Presidential nominee, Hilary Clinton, also voiced her opposition to the TPP, flagging that if she is elected president in November she would oppose a vote to ratify the TPP during a lame-duck session of Congress.
And late last month, Republican nominee, Donald Trump escalated the rhetoric, proclaiming the TPP is a “rape of our country” and challenging Hillary Clinton to void the agreement in its entirety.
It is believed that the best (perhaps only) chance of passing the TPP now rests with the Obama Administration waiting until the lame duck session after November’s Presidential Election before giving Congress the chance to vote on the deal. However, Hilary Clinton’s opposition and influence could stop the vote from occurring.
Republican Senator Orrin Hatch, who is the US Senate Finance Committee chairman, also believes that it would be difficult to pass the TPP during the Lame Duck session:
“There’s a real question whether the leadership will allow it during the lame duck, and if it isn’t done in the lame duck then I think we’re going to just start all over,” he said.
“And that means negotiate these agreements… I think we’re going to have to work on redoing that agreement if we can’t get it done in this time.
Likewise, Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, has told reporters that he believes there is only a “slim” chance a ‘lame duck’ session of Congress would ratify the TPP.
Given the dubious provisions surrounding intellectual property and investor-state dispute settlement, it still appears that political opposition in the US remains the best chance of the TPP being scuttled.
