Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released a new opinion poll showing that the majority of Australians (58%) want Australia’s population kept under 35 million by 2046, with just over a third also wanting the population kept below 30 million. By contrast, just under one-quarter of Australians want Australia’s population to grow above 35 million (see below table).
According to Gary Morgan:
Most Australians want relatively moderate population growth – 34% (up 2%) want a population under 30 million in 2046, and only 24% (down 6%) want a population of 35 million or more. This is a shift away from growth levels that were seen as acceptable a year ago – but nowhere near the 2010 levels when 56% wanted a population under 30 million in the year 2040.
…across a number of questions relating to immigration, and the ideal size for Australia, there has been a shift away from supporting growth and immigration over the last year. This is not back to the levels recorded in 2010 but does give a clear sense that Australians are becoming less open to immigration.
That more fewer people currently oppose a population of 35 million than was the case in 2010 is hardly surprising given the population was 10% smaller six years ago, hence the rate of growth required to hit 35 million in 30 years time was much higher back then.
Moreover, to get to a population of 30 million in 30 years time means an average annual population growth rate of just 0.73%,whereas to get to 35 million would require an average annual population growth rate of 1.25%. In both cases, they are well below the decade’s average population growth rate of 1.70% and the current growth rate of 1.38%.
RMR’s 35-million threshold is also below the Intergenerational Report’s projection that Australia’s population would hit 35.8 million in 30 years and 39.7 million in 40 years (see next chart).
Regardless, the survey clearly shows that Australians as a whole do not support the “Big Australia” agenda being pursued by the three major political parties.
