Global reflation continues to gain momentum, amid upside inflation surprises in DM and EM. Inflation is now close to DM central bank targets. We recently raised our China CPI/PPI forecasts and see upside risks to inflation projections globally.
Global inflation surprised on the upside in December and January for the first time since 1H 2012. The positive surprises were more sizeable in DM,although there have also been upside surprises in EM.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
