Population ponziteers spin as Mad Melbourne aims for 9 million

You’ve gotta love the ‘fake news’ merchants over at Domainfax. Instead of focusing on the key driver of Victoria’s 150,000 strong population deluge – net overseas migration (83,446 in the year to March) – Domainfax instead pinned the deluge on net interstate migration (18,557 in the year to March):

Victoria’s population is booming as NSW residents flood into their southern neighbour by the tens of thousands.

The latest figures from the Bureau of Statistics show the strongest population growth in Victoria since 1960, helped by a net migration of 5000 Australians moving to Victoria from other states in the first three months of 2017.

Of those, 2000 extra NSW residents moved permanently towards the Yarra, as rising costs of living, house prices and perceived job opportunities weighed on the minds of them and the 8000 that preceded them during the past year…

Domainfax also conveniently failed to mention that net overseas migration into Victoria was 31,064 in the March quarter alone – accounting for 66% of Victoria’s population growth and more than six times larger than the 4,956 net interstate migration.

But the spin did not stop at Fairfax’s dodgy analysis of the data. It also extended to the Victorian Government:

Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas said the state government was rolling out an infrastructure program across roads, rail, schools and hospitals to give Victorians the services they need.

“With the fastest growing economy, job creation that leads the nation and the world’s most liveable city, it is little wonder people are moving here,” he said.

Of course, the reality on the ground is that Melbourne is grinding to a halt as the population deluge of roughly 130,000 people is quickly overrunning economic and social infrastructure.

Worse, the Victorian Government’s own bullish forecasts of population growth have already been smashed (see red below). As shown in the next chart, Victoria’s population was in 2015 projected to hit 10 million people by 2051, with Melbourne’s population hitting 8 million people:

However, this projection assumed that annual population growth would not exceed 120,000 over the next two decades:

Victoria’s population growth in the five years to 2016 was massively revised upwards following the Census. And these upward revisions, combined with the growth of 150,000 in the year to March, have smashed the Victorian Government’s assumptions.

If the current population growth persists, Melbourne and Victoria are headed for populations of roughly 9 million and 11.4 million respectively by 2015, representing growth of some 90% over 2016 levels.

In light of the deluge, the Victorian Government clearly needs to revise up its population projections and dedicate far more money towards infrastructure investment. Otherwise, Melbourne’s residents face a dystopian crush-loaded future.

[email protected]