How far will the USD fall?

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Via HSBC:

AUD-USD threatening a breach back below the psychological 0.80 level. This softness in the AUD comes despite a weaker USD in early European trading and strong local manufacturing data overnight.
  • Australian manufacturing is seeing a strong start to the year as most sub-measures of the AiG Manufacturing Performance Index rose.
  • The main index lifted to 58.7 in January from 56.2 previously, with production up 5.7 points to 62.7 and new orders up 1.0 points to 58.8.
  • Even so, the healthy figures have left little impression on the AUD, which looks set to revisit a 0.79 handle.
AUD-USD’s impressive rally from 0.75 in mid-December to 0.81 in late January may finally be set for a correction.
  • Near-term support below 0.80 comes in at 0.7916.
In the note, while not specifically on the AUD, HSBC discuss the China manufacturing PMI yesterday … China data impacts AUD of course:
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI figure came in better than expected at 51.5 vs Reuters consensus of 51.3.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.