Government has “lost the confidence” of polity on immigration

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If Leith’s demolition yesterday was not enough then try Judith Sloan today:

…the net annual economic gain is very small: 0.1 per cent of gross domestic product…

…No consideration is given in the report to the cost of congestion, the loss of urban amenity, overcrowded schools and hospitals, environmental pressures…

…And as for those silly figures about tax revenue gained from having immigrants — well, not refugees — there is no account of associated costs…

The reality is the government has lost the confidence of great swaths of the population when it comes to immigration — and the government knows it. It is all over the shop. One minute there is a triumphal announcement that the permanent immigrant cap won’t be met, so we can all feel slightly relieved. The next we are told immigration is one of the biggest economic gains around.

Junket Jen joins the chorus at the AFR:

It’s true that states such as NSW and Victoria are spending heavily on improved roads and rail networks. But this never seems to catch up with an ever accelerating need – and the growing frustration from commuters – as travel speeds steadily decline while population increases.

…every time I drive – very slowly – alongside a much delayed light rail project from Sydney’s CBD 12 kilometres to the suburb of Randwick, for example, I wonder about the logic of the entire construction. Not only has the route knocked out the suburban express bus lanes that seemed to work effectively at peak hours, the line doesn’t connect with any other. It’s less an integral part of a transport network than an isolated add-on – and a very expensive one.

That judgment is only more self-evident in 2018, along with the need for all governments to do much better by the public when it comes to transport infrastructure – or face the growing backlash over immigration levels.

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But that’s GDP you’re counting, Junket!

For anyone not on the payroll or blinded by ideology, the above is obvious. Independent polls are unequivocal and anyone that tracks media commentary and social media comments has seen the immigration debate swing 180 degrees from policy sacred cow to albatross. It is a huge problem for a broken Coalition and may also explain why the Labor Party is not ahead by 20 points in the polls.

The immigration intake has been run too hard by both parties into the inappropriate circumstances of the post-mining boom adjustment jeopardising wages, housing, services, the environment and the multicultural consensus.

Now the polity is desperate for a big cut just as the business cycle tips towards trouble adding more pro-cyclical risk to the looming Aussie bust.

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Good job!

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.