Readers will know for that since the global business cycle turned eight years old in 2017 I’ve been on end-of-cycle watch. This position is based upon the simple history of US business cycles which average eight years. Our own cycle is now very long in the tooth:
For several years I have also looked to the US as the most likely trigger for the bust and corporate debt in particular as its been driven ever higher by low interest rates and capital management strategies.
Via John Mauldin today comes a fulsome warning that that process is nearing its unavoidable conclusion:
Advertisement