At a time when world events are rapidly evolving and the global order appears to be shifting, Australians are placing their trust in Western allies and friends. The clear exception is the United States. When we ask Australian adults how much they trust a range of countries to ‘act responsibly in the world’, a bare majority (55%) say they trust the United States either ‘a great deal’ or ‘somewhat’ to act responsibly. This is a six-point fall since 2017, a very substantial 28-point drop since 2011, and the lowest level of trust in the United States recorded since we first asked this question in the 2006 Lowy Institute Poll.
The United Kingdom earns Australians’ highest level of trust, as it did in 2017, and this despite its vote to exit from the European Union – a move not favoured by Australians when we asked them in 2016. Almost all adult Australians (90%) trust the United Kingdom to ‘act responsibly in the world’. Japan is trusted by 87% of Australians, and France by 84%. Further behind, India is trusted by 59% of Australians, which places it ahead of the United States in Australians’ level of trust. China and the United States are not statistically separable on the question of trust, with 52% of Australians trusting China to the same degree as they trust the United States. Russia is trusted by only 28% of Australians (down ten points since 2017), and North Korea by 8% (down four points).
Confidence in Donald Trump and other world leaders
US President Donald Trump appears to be a significant factor in Australians’ declining trust in the United States. Few Australians (30%) have either ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ confidence in President Trump ‘to do the right thing regarding world affairs’. Almost half of adult women (49%) have no confidence ‘at all’ in the President, compared with 30% of men. On a list of nine world leaders, President Trump is only placed ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on this measure of confidence.
Australians’ confidence in world leaders corresponds strongly with their trust in the nations those leaders govern. UK Prime Minister Theresa May and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe top the list, with 68% and 66% of Australians respectively expressing their confidence in these leaders. Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is close behind, with 63% of Australians saying they have either ‘a lot’ of or ‘some’ confidence in him to do the right thing regarding
world affairs. New French President Emmanuel Macron has earned the confidence of 61%.
There is a significant gap between Western and other leaders. Australians are wary of Chinese President Xi Jinping, with a minority (43%) expressing confidence in him. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi carries the confidence of just over a third (37%) of Australians – although this places him seven points ahead of Donald Trump (30%). Only 19% of Australians have confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin, and 5% in North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Donald Trump and the US alliance
Despite the very low levels of confidence in US President Donald Trump, Australians remain strongly supportive of the US alliance. In a result almost unchanged from last year, 76% of Australians say the US alliance is either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security. And 64% (again, almost identical to last year’s result) say ‘Australia should remain close to the United States under President Donald Trump’. Less than a third (31%) say ‘Australia should distance itself from the United States under President Donald Trump’. Even among the 70% of Australians who say they have ‘not too much’ or ‘no confidence at all’ in Donald Trump, most of them (72%) say the alliance is either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security.
Older Australians are more likely to express very strong support for the alliance: a majority of those aged 45 and over (58%) see the alliance as ‘very important’, compared with 38% of those under 45. Even among this younger group, however, 70% say the alliance is either ‘very’ or ‘fairly important’, and 95% say it is either ‘very’, ‘fairly’, or ‘somewhat important’.
It appears this broad support for the US alliance is practical in nature, not merely symbolic. Despite Australians’ falling level of trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world, only 48% say they would be ‘less likely … to support Australia taking future military action in coalition with the United States under Donald Trump’ now that he is President. This is 11 points lower than the 59% of Australians in 2016 who said they would be less likely to support Australia taking military action with the United States under Donald Trump. In other words, reluctance about Australia joining the United States in military action under the Trump administration has eased since the new President took office.
Threats to Australia
Terrorism and North Korea’s nuclear program are seen as the leading threats to Australia when we ask Australians about a range of possible ‘threats to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years’. Two thirds of Australians (66%) say that ‘international terrorism’ is a ‘critical threat’ to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years, and the same number say ‘North Korea’s nuclear program’ is a critical threat. Climate change is the next highest ranked threat, with 58% seeing it as a critical threat; this is similar to the proportion (57%) who saw it as a critical threat in 2017, and 12 points higher than the result in 2014. The threat of cyberattacks from other countries continues to cause Australians some concern, with 57% seeing it as a critical threat. The prospect of a global economic downturn is seen as a critical threat by half (50%) of Australians. Despite his unpopularity, Donald Trump’s presidency is regarded as a critical threat by a minority of the population (42%).
Lower ranked are the threats posed by ‘large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into Australia’ (40% saying ‘critical threat’), ‘US foreign policies’ (36%), and ‘China’s growing power’ (36%). However, the threat of a rising China is perceived differently by Australians of different generations. While China’s growing power does not alarm most Australians, a majority (52%) of older Australians aged over 60 see it as a critical threat to the nation’s interests.
Foreign interference in Australian politics
Since 2017, there has been a lively public debate about the threat of foreign interference in Australia’s political processes, with revelations of connections between wealthy Chinese donors and Australian politicians.Despite the intensity of this debate, Australians do not appear to be particularly concerned about the possibility that such connections are a threat to Australian democracy. ‘Foreign interference in Australian politics’ is seen as a ‘critical threat’ by a minority (41%) of Australians. It ranks lower in threat perceptions than terrorism (66%), North Korea’s nuclear program (66%), climate change (58%), the threat of cyberattacks (57%), and the prospect of a global economic downturn (50%).
The public debate in 2017 revolved around the threat of Chinese influence. However, Australians’ concerns appear to be focused on foreign influence generally, rather than the threat posed by China specifically. When asked about influence from both China and the United States in Australia’s political processes, only marginally more Australians (63%) expressed concern about China than about the influence of the United States (58%).
Terrorism
International terrorism has been at the top of the list of Australians’ concerns for most of the history of Lowy Institute polling. On five of the six occasions we have asked Australians about the threats to Australia’s vital interests, terrorism has been the leading or equal highest concern. This year, we sought to understand this better among those respondents who said terrorism was either a ‘critical’ or ‘important but not critical’ threat to Australia’s vital interests (1123 of 1200 respondents). Almost all of them see terrorism as a global threat, with 91% agreeing it is a ‘threat to global security as well as Australia’s’. Incidents such as the Martin Place siege in late 2014 and the Parramatta shooting in 2015 may have heightened fears of home-grown terrorism: 93% of the respondents agree that terrorism is a threat because ‘terrorists could kill innocent Australian citizens in our cities’. Around three-quarters (72%) say ‘terrorism is a threat to our way of life in Australia’. Fewer (65%) say ‘terrorism makes it unsafe to travel overseas’.
To put these fears in context, our Poll results show that Australians feel less safe than in the past. In 2018, 78% say they feel either ‘very safe’ or ‘safe’. This is the lowest level measured since 2005, when 91% felt safe.
China
Over the course of Lowy Institute polling, Australians have expressed a complex range of attitudes towards China. On the one hand, China is Australia’s largest trading partner and an important contributor to Australia’s prosperity. On the other hand, many Australians are wary of China and its intentions.
Chinese investment
This year, there has been a sharp rise in the proportion of the Australian population who say the Australian government is ‘allowing too much investment from China’. Almost three-quarters (72%, up from 56% in 2014) now take this view.
Lowy Institute polling in the past has identified three areas of foreign investment which appear to disturb Australians the most: agriculture, residential real estate, and critical infrastructure such as ports and airports. Australians have been wary of Chinese investment in residential real estate, with 70% responding in our 2015 Poll that the Australian government allows too much investment from China in residential real estate.
Foreign investment in agriculture also causes widespread concern, with 87% of Australians saying in 2016 they were against ‘the Australian government allowing foreign companies to buy Australian farmland’. Finally, in our 2014 Poll, 60% of Australians were against the ‘Australian government allowing foreign companies to invest in ports and airports’. That poll presaged Treasurer Scott Morrison’s decision in 2016 to block the sale of NSW electricity provider Ausgrid to a consortium of Chinese state-owned and Hong Kong corporations, the blocking of the Kidman cattle station sale to Chinese buyers in late 2015,[3] and the lease of the Darwin port facility to Chinese firm Landbridge. The government has since announced new rules on the sale of electricity assets to foreign companies, and new conditions have also been imposed on the sale of agricultural land.
China as a military threat
This year, as in eight consecutive years previously, a significant proportion of the Australian population sees China as a potential military threat to Australia in the future. In 2018, 46% of Australians say it is likely that ‘China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years’.
The primary reason for this wariness is the perception that Australia may be drawn into a conflict between the United States and China in the region. When asked why they ‘personally think China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years’, 77% of those who see China as a likely military threat agree with the statement that ‘China and the United States are likely to come into conflict in the future and Australia will end up being drawn into the conflict through its alliance with the United States’. Seven in ten (70%) agree that ‘China’s recent actions have been assertive and suggest it is going to be a militarily aggressive power’. Fewer, but still a majority (65%), agree that ‘China has been expanding and modernising its military, suggesting it is preparing for conflict’.
China as an economic partner
Despite perceptions of the possible threat posed by China, most Australians see it far more as an economic partner than a military threat. More than eight in ten (82%) Australians now say that China is ‘more of an economic partner’. This is three points higher than in 2017, and five points higher than in 2015. Only 12% say China is ‘more of a military threat’.
World’s leading economic power
Australians’ embrace of China as an economic partner probably stems from their perception of it as a global economic powerhouse. More than half (55%) think China is the ‘world’s leading economic power’, with just 29% seeing the United States as the leading economy. Very few (7%) say ‘the countries of the European Union’ are the world’s leading economic power, although the European Union has the second-largest GDP, on an exchange rate basis, after that of the United States and ahead of China.
China and the United States
At a time when the United States and a rising China are fast becoming strategic competitors in the region, there is an increasing debate about whether Australia will eventually be forced to choose between the United States, as its alliance partner, and China, as its largest trading partner. However, around eight in ten (81%) Australians would disagree, saying it is ‘possible for Australia to have a good relationship with China and a good relationship with the United States at the same time’. While this is a six-point drop from the 87% who said this in 2013, it remains a very strong majority. Only 13% say it is not possible for Australia to maintain good relationships with both.
Climate change
Attitudes about climate change have been undergoing a dramatic reversal over the past six years. The number of Australians who saw global warming as a ‘serious and pressing problem’ about which ‘we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs’ fell from 68% in 2006 to 36% in 2012. Since then, however, concern about global warming has been rising steadily. In 2018, almost six in ten Australians (59%) say global warming is ‘a serious and pressing problem’, up five points since 2017 and 23 points since 2012.
The issue of climate change and global warming continues to split Australians along generational lines. While a clear majority (70%) of younger Australians aged 18–44 see ‘global warming’ as a ‘serious and pressing problem’, just less than half (49%) of their elders have the same level of concern.
Renewables vs coal
Power shortages in the southern states in early 2017 during heatwaves and storms, combined with the closure of the Hazelwood coal-fired power station in March 2017 and the proposed decommissioning of AGL’s Liddell coal-fired station in 2022, provoked a fierce debate about energy security in Australia during 2017. Later in the year, the Australian government put forward a new framework for energy policy, the National Energy Guarantee, with the aim of delivering a reliable, affordable energy supply. More recently, the Minister for Energy, Josh Frydenberg, has argued publicly that the sale, rather than closure, of the Liddell station would be ‘in the public interest’.
Despite the debate and political rhetoric, most Australians have not been persuaded to support coal over renewables for the nation’s energy security. Almost all Australians remain in favour of renewables, rather than coal, as an energy source. In 2018, 84% (up three points since 2017) say ‘the government should focus on renewables, even if this means we may need to invest more in infrastructure to make the system more reliable’. Only 14% say ‘the government should focus on traditional energy sources such as coal and gas, even if this means the environment may suffer to some extent’. Even among those who take the most sceptical view about global warming (the 10% who say ‘until we are sure that global warming is really a problem, we should not take any steps that would have economic costs’), 40% favour a focus on renewables. Nine in ten of the rest support a focus on renewables rather than coal, as do 72% of Liberal-National Party supporters.
These attitudes are consistent with previous findings of the Lowy Institute Poll on Australians’ preference for alternative energy sources. In 2016, most Australians (88%) agreed that ‘the use of fossil fuels is in decline around the world and Australia should invest more in alternative energy sources or risk being left behind’. Only 53% agreed (45% disagreed) that ‘Australia has an abundant supply of fossil fuels and we should continue to use and export them to keep our economy strong’.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
