Chinese trade suggests slowing economy

Friday 13 July 2018

Via Capital Economics:

• Chinese exports held up well on the eve of US tariffs. But weaker-than-expected import figures point to a renewed slowdown in domestic demand heading into the second half of the year.

• Export growth edged down last month, from 12.6% y/y to 11.3% in US dollar terms, but held up better than anticipated (the Bloomberg median was 9.5%, our forecast was 10.0%). (See Chart 1.) Adjusting for seasonality and price effects, we estimate that export volumes rose 1.1% m/m in June. (See Chart 2.)

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.