Give voters a population plebiscite, not a “people’s inquiry”

By Leith van Onselen

Liberal senator, Dean Smith, has intensified calls for a “people’s inquiry” into Australia’s population growth, and will today release draft terms of reference for his proposed year-long Senate review. From The Australian:

“There is a valuable lesson to be learned by the government in its response to community concerns regarding Australia’s banking system,” Senator Smith said.

“A critical element to governing well is to listen and respond in a timely and considered manner to views of ordinary Australians on issues that are close to their hearts and impact them on a day-to-day basis.

“I would hope the belated decision to initiate a royal commission into the banks demonstrates powerfully the need to stay ahead of public opinion”…

Public feedback about the impact of population growth would be sought from everyday Aus­tralians across the capital cities, and rural, regional and remote communities.

The inquiry would also commission an extensive cost-benefit analysis of migration as it decided on an ideal target for the size Australia should grow over the next three decades.

“This inquiry is designed to empower ordinary Australians for the first time on how as a ­nation our population policies will be shaped in Australia over the next 30 years,” Senator Smith said.

“Developing a people-based population policy that is driven from the grassroots of our community rather than a top-down approach will be liberating for Australians and be will make a positive and meaningful contribution to the population debate.”

I agree with Senator Smith that this issue needs to be tackled head on by Australia’s major political parties. Otherwise, normally sensible people will turn to extreme political groups to express their anger, as witnessed across Europe.

Moreover, now is the time for action, given the five most recent opinion polls have all showed overwhelming voter support for lower levels of immigration:

• Australian Population Research Institute: 54% want lower immigration;
• Newspoll: 56% want lower immigration;
• Essential: 54% believe Australia’s population is growing too fast and 64% believe immigration is too high;
• Lowy: 54% of people think the total number of migrants coming to Australia each year is too high; and
• Newspoll: 74% of voters support the Turnbull government’s cut of more than 10% to the annual permanent migrant intake to 163,000 last financial year.

That said, the only way to decide the immigration/population debate once and for all is to hold a plebiscite at the upcoming federal election seeking voters preference about the nation’s future population size, the answers of which would then be used to formulate Australia’s immigration intake to meet the said target.

A population plebiscite would be far more direct, democratic and effective than holding a year long Senate review, which will likely be overrun by vested interests and rent-seekers, and be used as a smokescreen by politicians to maintain the current excessive migrant intake.

Here is an example of the type of question that could be taken directly to the Australian people via plebiscite:

Australia’s population is currently 25 million. Under zero net overseas migration (NOM), it is projected to reach 27 million by 2060.

By 2060, do you believe Australia’s population should be:

• 27 million;
• 30 million;
• 35 million;
• 40 million;
• 45 million?

Obviously, there is room to move on the language and the chart should be updated to show the level of NOM corresponding to the choices, but you get the idea.

The important thing is that Australian’s views are sought directly, and this consensus is then used to formulate a national population policy.

No more smoke screens.

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