The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its private sector credit aggregates data for the month of June 2018:
A chart showing the long-run breakdown in the components is provided below:
Personal credit growth (0.0% MoM; -0.5% QoQ; -1.3% YoY) is still in the gutter, whereas business credit growth (0.3% MoM; 0.7% QoQ; 3.2% YoY) and housing credit growth (0.3% MoM; 1.1% QoQ; 5.6% YoY) are stronger.
The below chart shows that quarterly housing credit growth has crashed:
A long-run breakdown of owner-occupied credit (0.58% MoM; 1.71% QoQ; 7.78% YoY) and investor credit (-0.12% MoM; 0.03% QoQ; 1.62% YoY) is provided below:
Annual investor credit growth is crashing, whereas owner-occupied credit is also weakening. Combined, overall housing credit growth is trending down:
The annual dollar value of housing credit issued continues to fall, down to $93.4 billion in June from a peak of $113.7 billion in September 2017:
Finally, the share of loans going to housing was 62.27% in June – fractionally below all-time highs. By contrast, the share of total loans to businesses was just 32.44% – fractionally above all-time lows:
Overall, housing credit growth is weak, driven by a desertion of investors, which is reflected by the gradual fall in house prices.
