The Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis has released an analysis of the first quarter Budget revenue impacts from the Trump Administration’s corporate tax cuts, and the results aren’t pretty:
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 applies to taxes starting in 2018, and the first quarterly data on tax revenue are in. This graph compares current tax revenue categories with categories for the previous year. Most noticeable are a major drop in corporate tax income and the increase in taxes from production and imports. (In the latter case, both excise tax income and import duty income increased.) These changes are actually quite impressive: -35% for corporate tax income, +16% for production and import tax income. Personal income taxes are slightly down while taxes on foreign entities follow trend. How does all this pan out in the aggregate? The thick black line reveals that overall tax receipts are down by close to 5%.
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Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
