We’ve gotten another dose of the ABC’s pro-mass immigration bias, with Canberra Press Gallery Journalist, Jackson Gothe-Snape, spinning the lie that Australia’s population growth is not being driven by permanent migration:
Population growth is driven far more by foreign students and births… Permanent migration is a sizeable component, but not quite half, of Australia’s population growth.
Growth in the year to March was two-and-a-half times the size of the permanent migration program — 381,000 all up.
The permanent migration program granted 163,000 visas last year.
Natural increase, or the number of births after you subtract deaths, was at 144,000.
The other major driver is the growth in the number of temporary residents in the country, such as foreign students or workers who spend a year or more in Australia.
Given the way temporary visas interact with permanent visas — for example an international student getting a job then eventually moving onto a permanent visa — changes must be made to the migration program as a whole.
In fact, more than half of permanent visa recipients are already in Australia on temporary visas…
Although migration is just a fraction of population growth, it is uneven across the country.
Jackson Gothe-Snape seriously needs to do some more research.
First, the permanent migrant intake in 2017-18 was 179,000 once the permanent humanitarian intake (16,250) is taken into account alongside the non-humanitarian intake (162,500):
Second, while it is true that most migrants enter Australia as temporary residents, this is irrelevant. Many then convert to permanent residency, thus extending their stay in Australia indefinitely and adding to Australia’s population base over time – both directly and indirectly as they have children (then counted as natural increase).
Without the ability to convert to permanent residency once in Australia, these temporary migrants would be required to leave, thereby preventing Australia’s population from increasing via immigration, since migrant outflows would roughly match inflows over time.
Therefore, it is the permanent migrant intake that is the primary driver of Australia’s population increase since, unlike temporary migrants who must ultimately leave, these migrants remain in the country indefinitely and also have children (counted as natural increase), thereby continually adding to Australia’s population base.
Indeed, the 2016 Census revealed that Australia’s population increased by a whopping 1.9 million people (+8.8%) in the five years to 2016, driven by a 1.3 million increase in people born overseas (i.e. new migrants):
Sure, temporary migrants also boomed, and many would be captured in the above Census figures. But they increased by a relatively modest 382,000 over the past five years:
To really hammer the point home, let’s conduct a quick thought experiment. If Australia theoretically slashed the permanent migrant intake to zero, there would be three broad impacts on population growth:
- It would reduce the flow of temporary migrants, since many migrants enter Australia on temporary visas first hoping to transition to one of the many permanent non-humanitarian visas handed out each year (capped at 190,000). Eliminating permanent visas eliminates the probability of gaining permanent residency and, therefore, the incentive to come to Australia in the first place.
- The temporary migrants that cannot transition to permanent residency because the permanent intake has closed would have to leave Australia, thus significantly lowering net overseas migration (NOM) and population growth.
- Fewer permanent residencies means less migrants having children, thereby reducing natural increase as well.
In short, if the permanent migrant intake was hypothetically reduced to zero, then temporary migrants would have to leave, inflows would roughly match outflows (over the longer-term), and NOM and by extension Australia’s population would barely increase, according to Productivity Commission (PC) projections:
Don’t just take my word. The ABC’s own favourite demographer and population booster, Professor Peter McDonald, gave a CEPAR presentation in October whereby he also explained why the permanent migrant intake is the key driver of Australia’s population growth:
So there you have it: temporary migrants are by definition temporary and will eventually have to leave. By contrast, permanent migrants stay indefinitely and have children, adding to Australia’s population base over time.
This is why the PC’s 2016 Migrant Intake Australia Report explicitly said that “Australia’s immigration policy is its de facto population policy”.
To suggest otherwise displays ignorance or intellectual dishonesty.
