Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) has released the March 2019 mortgage stress and default analysis update. It’s the continuing story of pressure on households as ongoing wages growth is not offsetting costs of living, and mortgage repayments and total debt continues to rise.
The latest RBA data on household debt to income to December rose to 189.6, and remains highly elevated. Plus, the housing debt ratio continues to climb to a new record of 140.2, according to the RBA. This shows that household debt to income is still increasing.
This is confirmed by the latest financial aggregates recently released by the RBA, with owner occupied lending still growing significantly faster than inflation at 5.9%.
This high debt level, in the context of broader financial pressure, helps to explain the fact that mortgage stress continues to rise. Across Australia, more than 1,044,666 households are estimated to be now in mortgage stress (last month 1,036,214), another new record. This equates to more than 31.6% of owner-occupied borrowing households. In addition, more than 27,775 of these are in severe stress. We estimate that more than 66,700 households’ risk 30-day default in the next 12 months, up 800 from last month. This is as the impact of flat wages growth, rising living costs and higher real mortgage rates hit home. Bank losses are likely to rise a little ahead.
Our analysis uses the DFA core market model which combines information from our 52,000 household surveys, public data from the RBA, ABS and APRA; and private data from lenders and aggregators. The data is current to the end of March 2019. We analyse household cash flow based on real incomes, outgoings and mortgage repayments, rather than using an arbitrary 30% of income.
Households are defined as “stressed” when net income (or cash flow) does not cover ongoing costs. They may or may not have access to other available assets, and some have paid ahead, but households in mild stress have little leeway in their cash flows, whereas those in severe stress are unable to meet repayments from current income. In both cases, households manage this deficit by cutting back on spending, putting more on credit cards and seeking to refinance, restructure or sell their home. Those in severe stress are more likely to be seeking hardship assistance and are often forced to sell.
The forces continue to build, despite reassurances that household finances are fine. This is because we continue to see an accumulation of larger mortgages compared to income whilst costs are rising, and incomes remain static. Housing credit growth is running significantly faster than incomes and inflation and continued rises in living costs – notably child care, school fees and electricity prices are causing significant pain. Many households are depleting their savings to support their finances.
Probability of default extends our mortgage stress analysis by overlaying economic indicators such as employment, future wage growth and cpi changes. Our Core Market Model also examines the potential of portfolio risk of loss in basis point and value terms. Losses are likely to be higher among more affluent households, contrary to the popular belief that affluent households are well protected. This is shown in the segment analysis below:
Stress by the numbers.
Regional analysis shows that NSW has 286,890 households in stress (286,469 last month), VIC 283,753 (278,091 last month), QLD 185,282 (185,424 last month) and WA has 141,199 (139,142 last month). The probability of default over the next 12 months rose, with around 12,600 in WA, around 12,400 in QLD, 16,700 in VIC and 17,700 in NSW.
The largest financial losses relating to bank write-offs reside in NSW ($1.1 billion) from Owner Occupied borrowers) and VIC ($1.49 billion) from Owner Occupied Borrowers, though losses are likely to be highest in WA at 3.1 basis points, which equates to $1,045 million from Owner Occupied borrowers.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
