Immigration into Australia continues to smash official forecasts

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released visitor arrivals and departures statistics for the month of April, which suggested that immigration into Australia continues to surge.

In the year to April 2019, there were a near record 843,950 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia, up 5% from April 2018, and was only partly offset by 551,670 permanent and long-term departures:

Subtracting departures from arrivals, there were 292,280 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in the year to April 2019, way above the 42-year average of 155,091:

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As shown in the next chart, there is a strong correlation between the monthly ABS net long-term arrivals data and the lagging quarterly ABS net overseas migration (NOM) figures:

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Therefore, the monthly data suggests that NOM is about to surge.

As we have noted previously, the April federal budget projected that NOM would rise over the four year forward estimates:

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However, judging from the monthly arrivals data, NOM could once again smash the official projections.

So, despite the Coalition promising to cut immigration, migrants continue to flood into Australia en masse.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.