Via Goldman:
…as Goldman points out, amid the lingering trade tensions and continued depreciation of CNY in the first half of June, the bank’s preferred gauge of FX flows showed a dramatic jump in June outflows to the tune of $20 billion compared to an inflow of $13 billion in May, while the exporters’ trade repatriation ratio fell further in June. At the same time, the bond market saw a net inflow of around $11BN, modestly lower than the $16BN in May.
According to Goldman’s calculation using the SAFE dataset of “onshore FX settlement”, non-banks showed net FX outflows of around US$13bn (vs. an inflow of US$19bn in May). This was composed of US$23bn in net outflow via outright spot transactions, and US$11bn in net inflow via freshly entered and cancelled forward transactions. Meanwhile, another SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows” shows that on a net basis, the amount of RMB flow from onshore to offshore was around US$7bn.
