NSW Planning Minister: Population growth impossible to control

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After last week attacking so-called “NIMBY baby boomers” for opposing high-rise development across Sydney, NSW Planning Minister, Rob Stokes, claims it is “a completely quixotic quest” to try and control Sydney’s growth [my emphasis]:

In the next 17 years, Sydney’s population is expected to grow by 1.5 million people, a large percentage of whom will pour into the south-west growth corridor…

Conceding that the city is spreading too far too fast, Planning Minister Rob Stokes has revealed that he wants a new relationship with councils to help manage growth and infrastructure pressures.

“We want to help shape growth,” Mr Stokes said.

“Even if it were a desirable outcome to restrict growth, and I am not sure it necessarily is, but even if that is what people wanted to do that is a completely quixotic quest.

“You can’t stop it, so the best thing you can do is work together”…

What a load of gaslighting rubbish. Sydney’s current population growth has been caused almost entirely by net overseas migration (NOM):

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And all of Sydney’s future 4.5 million projected population increase will come from NOM:

Therefore, Sydney’s population growth could easily be “restricted” by simply returning Australia’s NOM back to the historical average of around 70,000, from 250,000 currently:

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Heck, even cutting NOM to 100,000 – still a generous intake – would greatly reduce Sydney’s future population increase.

Sure, immigration policy is set by the federal government, so in this sense it is out of the NSW State Government’s control.

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But why isn’t the NSW Government lobbying hard for deep cuts to the migrant intake? As the nation’s largest state, and the centre of political power, it could force the federal government’s hand.

After all, the overwhelming majority of NSW residents strongly oppose further population growth:

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They know that population growth means more over-development, crush-loaded infrastructure and services, and lower living standards.

Their views are also explicitly supported by Infrastructure Australia’s modelling, which shows projects worsening traffic congestion, longer commute times, and reduced access to jobs, schools, hospitals and green space as Sydney swells to a projected 7.4 million people by 2046 under ongoing mass immigration, regardless of whether Sydney builds up or builds out:

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Current mass immigration settings also means that Sydney will turn into a high-rise battery chook city mid-century, according to Urban Taskforce projections:

Rather than attacking his own constituents, Rob Stokes should represent them and lobby the federal government to slash immigration, given it is the driver of Sydney’s projected population explosion, over-development, and falling living standards.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.