CBA consumer intentions remain shot to bits

Ain’t getting better, via CBA:

Home Buying Spending Intentions

There was a pause in the sharp uptrend in home buying intentions in November

Nevertheless, the home buying HSI remains close to the record highs seen in H1 2017

And HSI readings point to an ongoing pick up in dwelling prices

Retail Spending Intentions

Retail spending intentions are bouncing around at present but seem stuck below the zero line. Intentions are yet to deliver the decisive break that would signal better times for consumer activity and the economy more broadly

Tax cuts have improved household ability of spend. But the boost to disposable income has ended up in cash savings

One potential trigger for unlocking these savings would be a positive wealth effect from rising dwelling prices

The retail HSI tends to follow dwelling prices with a two-month lag

Motor Vehicles Spending Intentions

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.