First, Australia:
We have begun to flatten the virus curve. The problem is, we’re still in Summer! As the lockdown proceeds to work, the pressure to open up will grow and we likely will in a month or so. Then we’ll be Winter and the virus will explode into a second peak. Unless we’re very clever and determined about an extreme testing regime.
By comparison, let’s look at Italy which is also succeeding finally with a very severe lockdown after waiting far too long:
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