Cream of Australian economics warn ScoMo to stay shut

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Via everybody:

An Open Letter from Australian Economists on Tradeoffs During the COVID-19 Crisis

Corresponding authors:

Chris Edmond ([email protected])
Steven Hamilton ([email protected])
Richard Holden ([email protected])
Bruce Preston ([email protected])

Please click here to sign. The views expressed are those of the signatories and not necessarily those of their employer.

19 April 2020

Dear Prime Minister and Members of the National Cabinet:

The undersigned economists have witnessed and participated in the public debate about when to relax social-distancing measures in Australia. Some commentators have expressed the view that there is a trade-off between the public health and economic aspects of the crisis. We, as economists, believe this is a false distinction.

We cannot have a functioning economy unless we first comprehensively address the public health crisis. The measures put in place in Australia, at the border and within the states and territories, have reduced the number of new infections. This has put Australia in an enviable position compared to other countries, and we must not squander that success.

We recognise that the measures taken to date have come at a cost to economic activity and jobs, but believe these are far outweighed by the lives saved and the avoided economic damage due to an unmitigated contagion. We believe that strong fiscal measures are a much better way to offset these economic costs than prematurely loosening restrictions.

As has been foreshadowed in your public remarks, our borders will need to remain under tight control for an extended period. It is vital to keep social-distancing measures in place until the number of infections is very low, our testing capacity is expanded well beyond its already comparatively high level, and widespread contact tracing is available.

A second-wave outbreak would be extremely damaging to the economy, in addition to involving tragic and unnecessary loss of life.

Sincerely,

 
  Jeff Borland—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Lisa Cameron—Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
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Efrem Castelnuovo—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Deborah Cobb-Clark—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Ashley Craig—Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Michigan
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Chris Edmond—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Nisvan Erkal—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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John Freebairn—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Renée Fry-McKibbin—Professor of Economics, Australian National University
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Joshua Gans—Professor of Strategic Management, University of Toronto
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Jacob Goeree—Scientia Professor and Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School
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Quentin Grafton—Professor of Economics, Australian National University
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Simon Grant —Professor of Economics, Australian National University
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Pauline Grosjean—Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School
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Jane Hall—Distinguished Professor of Health Economics, University of Technology Sydney
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Steven Hamilton—Assistant Professor of Economics, The George Washington University
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Ian Harper—Dean and Director, Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne
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Richard Holden—Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School
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David Johnston—Professor, Centre for Health Economics, Monash University
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Flavio Menezes—Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland
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Warwick McKibbin—Professor of Economics, Australian National University
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Simon Mongey—Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Chicago
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James Morley—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Joseph Mullins—Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Minnesota
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Abigail Payne— Professor and Director, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
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Bruce Preston—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Sue Richardson—Emeritus Professor of Economics, Flinders University
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Stefanie Schurer—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Kalvinder Shields—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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John Quiggin—Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland
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Simon Quinn—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Oxford
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James Vickery—Senior Economic Advisor and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
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Tom Wilkening—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Justin Wolfers —Professor of Economics and Professor of Public Policy, University of Michigan
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Yves Zenou—Professor of Economics, Monash University
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Alfredo Paloyo—Senior Lecturer, University of Wollongong
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Pei Cheng Yu—Lecturer, University of New South Wales
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Isa Hafalir—Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney
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Emil Temnyalov—Senior Lecturer, University of Technology Sydney
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Hongyi Li—Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School
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Christopher Gibbs—Senior Lecturer, The University of Sydney
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Gordon Menzies—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney
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Viet Nguyen—Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
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Aarti Singh—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Silvia Mendolia—Senior Lecturer, University of Wollongong
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Andrew John—Associate Professor of Economics, Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne
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Akshay Shanker—Research Fellow, UNSW Business School
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Yusuf Mercan—Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Mei Dong—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Tim Robinson—Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
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Ross Hickey—Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
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Onur Kesten—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Mengheng Li—Lecturer, University of Technology Sydney
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Peter Siminski—Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney
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Guay Lim—Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
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Ian McDonald—Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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David P. Byrne—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Arpita Chatterjee —Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School
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Tomasz Wozniak—Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Mehmet Ozmen—Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Michael Coelli—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Trung Duc Tran—Research Fellow, The University of Sydney
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Siqi Pan—Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Joshua B. Miller—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Xueyuan Wu—Associate Professor of Actuarial Studies, University of Melbourne
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Leslie Martin—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Trung Duc Tran—Research Fellow, The University of Sydney
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Sandy Suardi—Professor of Economics, University of Wollongong
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Yong Song—Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Olena Stavrunova—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney
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Robert Dixon—Professorial Fellow, University of Melbourne
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Tom Kompas—Professor of Environmental Economics and Biosecurity, University of Melbourne
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Alexandru Nichifor—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Kevin Fox—Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School
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Peter Lloyd—Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Melbourne
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Andrew Clarke—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Hayley Fisher—Senior Lecturer, The University of Sydney
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Garry Barrett—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Alberto Motta—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School
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Oleg Yerokhin—Senior Lecturer, University of Wollongong
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Anton Kolotilin—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School
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Kristle Romero Cortés—Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School
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John Romalis—Sir Hermann Black Chair of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Keiichi Kawai—Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School
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May Li—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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John Tang—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Victoria Baranov—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Shuping Shi—Professor of Economics, Macquarie University
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Mariano Kulish—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Frank Neri—Senior Lecturer, University of Wollongong
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Lionel Page—Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney
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Lawrence Uren—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Alastair Fraser—Lecturer, The University of Sydney
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Gautam Bose—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School
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Darla Hatton MacDonald—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Tasmania
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Jorge Miranda-Pinto—Lecturer, The University of Queensland
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Pedro Gomis-Porqueras—Professor of Economics, Deakin University
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Sephorah Mangin—Senior Lecturer, Australian National University
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Begoña Dominguez—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland
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Isabella Dbrescu—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School
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Faisal Sohail—Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Nicolas de Roos—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Andrew Wait—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney
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Shuanming Li—Professor of Actuarial Studies, University of Melbourne
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Kevin Staub—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Ivan Balbuzanov—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Nahid Khan—Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Francesco Carli—Senior Lecturer, Deakin University
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Giovanni Caggiano—Associate Professor, Monash University
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Wenying Yao—Senior Lecturer, Deakin University
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Sam Tsiaplias—Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne
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Laura Puzzello—Senior Lecturer, Monash University
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Ayushi Bajaj—Lecturer, Monash University
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Benjamin Wong—Senior Lecturer, Monash University
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Marco Faravelli—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland
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Denni Tommasi—Lecturer, Monash University
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Bin Peng—Senior Lecturer, Deakin University
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Reshad Ahsan—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Heather Anderson—Professor of Economics and Econometrics, Monash University
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Satoshi Tanaka—Senior Lecturer, University of Queensland
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Dan Zhu—Senior Lecturer, Monash University
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Farshid Vahid-Araghi—Professor of Econometrics, Monash University
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Richard J Smith—Professorial Fellow, University of Melbourne
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Jiti Gao—Donald Cochrane Chair of Business and Economics and Professor of Econometrics, Monash University
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Qingyuan Du—Senior Lecturer, Monash University
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Laura Panza—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Tim Moore—Associate Professor of Economics, Purdue University
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Peter Sivey—Associate Professor of Economics, RMIT University
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Federico Masera—Lecturer, UNSW Business School
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Elif Incekara Hafalir—Lecturer, University of Technology Sydney
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Maria Recalde—Lecturer, University of Melbourne
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Lata Gangadharan—Professor of Economics, Monash University
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Fabrizio Carmignani—Professor of Economics, Griffith University
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.