SQM Research has released its stock on market data for September, which reveals that for sale listings nationally declined by 1.2% over the month and by 7.4% year-on-year:
Listings have increased in Sydney but fallen everywhere else.
According to SQM:
The fall in listings is a little abnormal for the spring season. It has been predominantly driven by two factors which include sharp falls in new listings for Melbourne over the month; as well a sizable falls in older listings across the country. This second reason may point to an increase in absorption rates. In other words, there may have been increases in buyer activity over the month. There has also been other evidence of increases in buyer activity. This includes the rises in asking prices, the rises in auction clearance rates and the increases in housing finance approvals…
Nationally, new listings (30 days) increased by 2.4% over the course of September with 1,447 more listings in the market. Perth posted the highest increase in new listings of 8.9%, closely followed by Canberra with 8.8% increase. However, Melbourne recorded the highest decrease in new listings of 41.3%.
The latest data from CoreLogic supports SQM’s findings:
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Nationally, new listing numbers remain 22% lower than a year ago, and 25% below the five year average. Similarly, total advertised stock levels were 14% below last year’s level, and 17% below the five year average.
According to Mr Lawless, such tight inventory levels at a time when demand is recovering is creating some urgency in the market. “While the number of advertised homes is 14% lower than a year ago, our estimate of home sales through the September quarter was 2.8% higher than the same time last year. The imbalance between available supply and housing demand is one of the reasons why housing values have hardly fallen through the COVID period so far, and helps to explain the recent upwards trend in values across some cities.”
The key test will come if a flood of distressed sales hit the market after emergency income support and mortgage repayment holidays are unwound.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
