Iron ore prices for October 19, 2020:
Spot firmed but will fall again today. I still see more downside than up in the very short term. That said, the restocking pulse is fine and price supportive with port inventories hitting 124.5mt last week. I expect we’ve got another 40mt to go so it is a price tailwind through mid-2021.
Also supportive is steel output which remains insane for CISA members despite enormous inventories:
Less price supportive is the hiccup in empty apartment sales which retain a question mark:
Property starts eased in September too:
Also bearish is the return of scrap production in recent months:
It’s no longer an outright bullish market for iron ore as supply comes back on stream. It’s a marking time market as inventories normalise before it turns into a weak market in H2, 2021, if not sooner.
