Tentative steps toward Trans-Tasman travel bubble

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From Sky News:

The federal government has today signed a trans-Tasman travel bubble which will allow New Zealand residents to travel to New South Wales and the Northern Territory without being required to quarantine.

Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack announced the first step of the deal would come into effect from Friday, October 16.

Under the agreement, any New Zealand resident would be allowed to travel to NSW and NT on the proviso they have not been in a declared COVID hotspot in the 14 days prior to leaving.

“I know that New South Wales, Premier Gladys Berejiklian and I know that the Chief Minister of the Northern Territory Michael Gunner welcome this indeed,” Mr McCormack said.

Assuming a full Trans-Tasman travel bubble follows, New Zealand’s economy stands to gain far more than Australia given it is one fifth the size (in population terms) and is far more dependent on tourism.

That is, a Trans-Tasman travel bubble will deliver more Australians to NZ than it will Kiwis to our shores, delivering a net negative to local tourism.

This doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t go ahead as a pilot for other bubbles. It should. But the likelihood is Australia will actually lose out in narrow economic terms.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.