DXY is at breaking point:
The Australian dollar is at break out point:
Gold held, oil surged:
Metals are unstoppable:
Miners did stop:
EM stocks are lofty:
Junk was firm:
Treasuries bid despite oil:
Stocks rotated back to tech:
It’s more of the same. The European virus is falling fast but so is economic activity, espeically services:
The US refuses to close so the virus continues to spread:
Though there might be a hint of curve flattening on the partial lockdowns or just natural limits of spread:
But the economic weakness is still spreading, if more slowly, in the US too:
Yet that remains secondary to impulse in markets which are still happy to look through the winter of death to the sunny uplands beyond.
The Fed was pretty dour in its minutes:
Participants continued to see the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook as quite elevated, with the path of the economy highly dependent on the course of the virus; on how individuals, businesses, and public officials responded to it; and on the effectiveness of public health measures to address it. Participants cited several downside risks that could threaten the recovery. While another broad economic shutdown was seen as unlikely, participants remained concerned about the possibility of a further resurgence of the virus that could undermine the recovery. The majority of participants also saw the risk that current and expected fiscal support for households, businesses, and state and local governments might not be sufficient to sustain activity levels in those sectors, while a few participants noted that additional fiscal stimulus that was larger than anticipated could be an upside risk. Some participants commented that the recent surge in virus cases in Europe and the reimposition of restrictions there could lead to a slowdown in economic activity in the euro area and have negative spillover effects on the U.S. recovery. Some participants raised concerns regarding the longer-run effects of the pandemic, including sectoral restructurings that could slow employment growth or an acceleration of technological disruptions that could be limiting the pricing power of some firms.
Which only adds the excitement.
More bullishness ahead for Australian dollar, in fits and starts, until the global recovery outstrips the Australian mid-next year as China slows, decouples and iron ore falls.
